Inside the Numbers of the Guardians' Remarkable AL Central Comeback

The Guardians did it. Somehow, they actually did it.

With a 5–2 win over the Tigers on Tuesday night, Cleveland completed an improbable comeback and tied Detroit atop the American League Central. A team that was eight games under .500 and 15.5 games out of the division race in early July now has a 56.3% chance of winning it.

Conversely, the Tigers, who held baseball's best record on July 8, have fumbled it. An epic collapse has seen them fall into a deep slump that’s snowballed into a complete September collapse.

How did this happen? Let's go inside the numbers to get a better look.

40 — Wins for Cleveland on July 6, 88 games into the season. They fell eight games below .500 on that date after being swept at home by the Tigers.

45 — Wins for Cleveland since July 7, a 45–24 record (.652), second best in baseball behind the Milwaukee Brewers.

15.5 — Games the Guardians trailed the Tigers by on July 8.

10.5 — Games the Guardians trailed the Tigers by on Sept. 1.

9.5 — Games behind the Tigers on Sept. 10.

3.96 — Team ERA for the Guardians on July 6, 18th in baseball.

3.30 — Team ERA for the Guardians since July 6, best in baseball.

2.9 — fWAR for Jose Ramirez since July 6, tied with Cal Raleigh for fifth in the American League. Ramirez is slashing .264/.358/.528 over that span with 16 home runs, 43 RBIs, 57 runs scored and 18 stolen bases, with a wRC+ of 136.

1.3 — fWAR for rookie starting pitcher Parker Messick since his debut on Aug. 20. That ranks fifth in baseball during that time. He's 3–0 with a 2.08 ERA and 31 strikeouts against five walks in 34 2/3 innings.

2.39 — ERA for starter Gavin Williams since July 6. He's 7–1 since then.

1.25 — ERA for starter Tanner Bibee in three September starts. He's 2–0, with a 0.65 WHIP and 21 strikeouts against three walks in 21 2/3 innings. That includes a complete game shutout two-hitter against the White Sox on Sept. 12.

Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee has been instrumental in the team’s second-half turnaround. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

59 — Tigers wins on July 8, most in MLB. They were 59–34, good for the best record in baseball and a 14-game lead over the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals in the AL Central. The Guardians were 15.5 games back.

26 — Tigers wins since July 8. They're 26–38 (.406) in that time, the sixth-worst record in baseball.

5 — Tigers wins in September. They are 5–14, the second-worst record in baseball behind only the 4–16 Colorado Rockies.

3.46 — Tigers team ERA on July 8, third-best in baseball.

4.80 — Tigers team ERA since July 8, sixth-worst in baseball.

106 — Detroit's team wRC+ on July 8, seventh in baseball.

95 — Detroit's wRC+ since July 8, 20th in baseball.

Carrington's "wing wizard" is another Mbeumo in the making at Man Utd

Manchester United have now gone four games undefeated in the Premier League, which is perhaps a sign of things changing for Ruben Amorim’s side. His first year in charge at the club has been underwhelming to say the least, and it has taken time to adapt to his infamous 3-4-2-1 system.

Well, one of the most important positions in Amorim’s system are the two number 10s. It took him some time to find the right solution in those roles. Bruno Fernandes has been operating in the pivot, with Matheus Cunha and Mason Mount two key options.

Bryan Mbeumo has also made a fast start to life at United.

Mbeumo’s exceptional October

October felt like the month where Mbeumo truly arrived at United. He had played well in the weeks before that, scoring against Grimsby in the Carabao Cup and Burnley in the Premier League, but it was last month that he began to shine truly.

Mbeumo played three games in October for United, chipping in with at least one goal or assist in each of them. In total, he contributed four goal involvements in three games last month for the Red Devils.

It is perhaps easy for United fans to pinpoint which was the most important. Mbeumo’s strike at Anfield against Liverpool just seconds into the match summed him up.

Their number 19 managed to run in behind the Reds’ defence and fire home first time on his weaker right foot.

After grabbing an assist for Mount against Sunderland at the start of the month and scoring twice against Brighton and Hove Albion, Mbeumo was nominated for Premier League player of the month.

Club legend Wayne Rooney said the Cameroonian star is “by far United’s best player of the season.”

It is certainly exciting that United are brewing the new version of Mbeumo in the academy.

United’s homegrown Mbeumo

For decades, United have produced some exceptional players in their academy. In the current crop of youngsters, there are some exciting talents. JJ Gabriel is a player who has a lot of hype surrounding him.

Another young talent United fans can get excited about is 18-year-old Shea Lacey. After overcoming injury issues in recent seasons, the Liverpool-born attacker has shown exactly how good he is this season.

In nine games across all competitions, Lacey has found the back of the net on three occasions and assisted two other goals for teammates.

They have come in just 507 minutes, leaving him with an average of a goal involvement every 101 minutes.

In The Pipeline

Football FanCast’s In the Pipeline series aims to uncover the very best youth players in world football.

One of the best examples of Lacey’s talent came in the under-21s’ recent 2-0 EFL Trophy victory away to Notts County. Operating on the right-hand side, the 18-year-old scored one and created one chance.

The “wing wizard” – as hailed by the Daily Mail’s Chris Wheeler – was a handful for defenders all night, completing three from five dribbles and winning two fouls

Touches

72

Pass accuracy

80%

Passes completed in opposition half

24/32

Ground duels won

8/14

Ball recoveries

7

Dribbles completed

3/5

Chances created

1

Goals

1

One of the striking things about Lacey is his technical ability. He thieves in tight spaces in the right half-space, which could certainly make him suitable for Amorim’s system, playing in the right 10 role just like Mbeumo does now.

The England under-20 star was described as a “creative talisman” by Academy Scoop on X, a page dedicated to the Red Devils academy sides. That is easy to understand, with the 18-year-old having passes like this in his locker.

It is certainly easy to see how Lacey can be United’s own Mbeumo. The talented youngster is comfortable on the right wing or as a number 10, just like the Red Devils’ number 19.

Both are left-footed attackers, too.

It remains to be seen when Lacey will get his first-team debut at United, but it is bound to happen sooner or later. He is a superb talent who has even trained with England’s first team this season. United have another gem on their hands.

Man Utd have a "deadly" academy star who's another Fernandes in the making

Man Utd might not have to look far to replace Bruno

ByJoe Nuttall Nov 6, 2025

Chelsea’s only piece of “good news” from Leeds will transform their season

This has not been a good week for Chelsea Football Club.

Down to ten men against league leaders Arsenal, they did at least salvage some pride from that game. To hold one of the best sides in Europe, if not the best side in Europe this season to a 1-1 draw with fewer players is certainly reason to celebrate.

However, a week on from defeating Barcelona in the Champions League, this midweek was a great deal more frustrating for Enzo Maresca and Co.

A game against Leeds United should have been easy, right? Think again. The Blues lost 3-1 and slipped further behind the Gunners in the race for the title. That dream looks over for another year, but according to Maresca, there is one big reason to remain positive.

Maresca shares good news for Chelsea

Maresca has admitted that Cole Palmer’s return to action at Elland Road was the only positive.

The attacking midfielder has been absent for a large portion of the season but has been back among the matchday squad across the last two games.

Palmer came off the bench in the 61st minute for his first outing since late September after toes and groin problems and understandably, that was the only consolation Chelsea’s Italian gaffer could extract from such a horror night on the road.

Maresca said: “Probably it’s the only good news of the night. I’m happy for him, he’s back, now he needs to build a little bit the physical condition and he will be important for us, for sure.

“He’s getting better, but he needs to play minutes. He had more-or-less half-an-hour, hopefully we can give him more in the next game.”

Palmer has been a breathtaking signing at Stamford Bridge, notably bagging 18 goals and registering 14 assists in all competitions for his club last season.

Well, Maresca will certainly need his talisman to rediscover that form after dropping points in consecutive fixtures.

Speaking about the result, the former Leicester City manager stated: “When you play the last two games against Barcelona and Arsenal, you expect a better performance, no doubt.

“But, for many reasons, it’s not going to be possible for every game again, because we change players, because we have players that we said many times it’s not possible to play every two, three days. When you change players, also the level drops, that is the reality, because they are important players for us. Moises, Reece (James), with these kind of players, we cannot use them every game. It’s impossible, because otherwise they can get injury again and be out for months.”

Chelsea are now fourth in the table after Aston Villa defeated Brighton in midweek. While the Blues looked in something of a title race last week, they are now nine points off top spot.

For the World Champions, you would expect that their hopes now rest on the cup competitions for the rest of the ongoing season.

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By
Robbie Walls

Dec 4, 2025

Why Pirates’ Bubba Chandler’s 100 MPH Arm Is Different From the Rest

Another week, and there are another three initiates of the 100-mph club. Zach “Big Sugar” Maxwell, 24, of the Reds, made his debut at 275 pounds and with an average fastball velocity of 100.7 mph. Joel Peguero, 28, averaged 101.1 mph for the Giants, and Bubba Chandler, 22, twice hit 100 mph in his debut for the Pirates.

You might think such big-arm pitchers were can’t-miss amateurs. But the universe of 100-mph throwers has expanded so far that Maxwell was a sixth-round pick, Peguero is pitching for his fifth organization in 10 years after signing his first pro contract and Chandler was a third-round pick.

With 20% of the season left to play, already we’ve seen more pitchers hit 100 mph (76) than in any complete season in baseball history (the record was 64 in 2022 and ’23).

This is the first generation of pitchers who have grown up under Velocity Inc., a catchall to describe the growth business of leveraging technology to teach velocity throughout the amateur market (colleges, private coaches, throwing labs, etc).

Compared to the same date of previous seasons, the number of pitchers who have hit 100 mph in the major leagues is up 38% from last year and from 2019, the last full season before the velocity revolution began on the other side of the COVID-19-impacted campaign.

From 2008 to ’19, the 100-mph club held relatively steady, with gradual increases. But you can see the classic “hockey stick” growth pattern since ’21, including the huge spike this year:

courtesy of Tom Verducci

With so many high-octane throwers, it might be easy to dismiss Chandler as just another player who pitches at 100 mph. Didn’t we just see Chase Burns light up the radar gun for the Reds? He also posted a 5.24 ERA before landing on the IL with a flexor tendon strain. (Burns is set to resume throwing this week.)

Chandler is different. He has the best starting-pitcher arm to come along since his Pittsburgh teammate Paul Skenes, who made his debut last season. Chandler made his entry out of the bullpen, but make no mistake, he’s a true starter. Pirates GM Ben Cherington said Chandler “could earn” starts in “September or whenever.” He should be in the rotation now. Keep him on his routine (83 of his 89 games in the minors were as a starter) and let him learn the major league prep work when you know you’re facing a lineup in five or six days.

What makes Chandler special is that you don’t see starting pitchers with a fastball like his. It is elite in terms of velocity and induced vertical break, a fancy way of measuring how well a fastball fights gravity with its spin. A high IVB, or vert, means the baseball doesn’t drop as much as the hitter expects.

Chandler is one of only nine pitchers with a four-seam fastball that averages 98-plus mph with 17-plus inches of vert. Burns is the only other starting pitcher in that group.

What makes Chandler even more frightening for hitters is that he has the second-lowest release point of those elite-velocity, elite-vert pitchers. Chandler is 6' 3" but uses his legs so well and has such a low arm slot that his vert is even more troublesome for hitters. His Vertical Attack Angle is nasty—low release to a high point in the zone with elite carry. Burns, who is also 6' 3", throws from a high, over-the-top slot that is 7 1/3 inches higher than Chandler’s slot, which can create more stress on the shoulder. 

Here are the most elite fastballs in MLB as measured by velocity and vert. I added the vertical release point so you can see how Chandler comes at it from a different angle.

Four-Seam fastballs 98-plus MPH with 17-plus inch induced vertical break

V.Rel.

mph

IVB

1. Jeremiah Estrada, Padres

5.94

98.0

19.8

2. Trevor Megill, Brewers

6.52

99.0

19.0

3. Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox

6.19

98.5

18.6

4. Mason Montgomery, Rays

5.84

98.7

18.5

5. Ryne Stanek, Mets

6.55

98.5

18.4

6. Robert Suárez, Padres

6.24

98.5

18.3

7. Chase Burns, Reds*

6.50

98.4

18.1

8. Ryan Helsley, Mets

6.16

99.4

17.6

9. Bubba Chandler, Pirates*

5.89

98.4

17.1

MLB Average

5.82

94.5

15.8

*Starting pitchers

Like Skenes and Jacob deGrom, one of his pitching models, Chandler was a two-way player and terrific athlete (he switch-hits and is ambidextrous enough to have played first base and pitched one inning in high school left-handed) who only recently took to pitching full-time. He threw 92 mph as a high school junior, after which he chased velocity by packing on pounds as a senior. It paid off. He sat at 95 mph and touched 98 mph.

Chandler lasted until the third round in 2021 because he appeared headed to Clemson to play quarterback. The Pirates gave him $3 million to sign, a massive sum for a third-rounder, in part because they saved slot money on No. 1 pick, catcher Henry Davis. Chandler hit .186 in his first two pro seasons before giving up the idea of being the next Shohei Ohtani.

A generation ago, coaches harangued young pitchers to. With his athleticism, elite velocity and low arm slot, Chandler is a proxy for state of the art pitching—though he didn’t get there by being a pitcher-only since 10 years old, a mistake made by many in the velocity generation.

Pitchers are throwing harder and from a lower release point. As we saw with 100-mph throwers, the numbers below held relatively steady until 2021, when the effects of Velocity Inc. really kicked in:

MLB four-seam fastballs

Year

V.Rel.

mph

2016

6.08

93.2

2017

5.96

93.2

2018

5.90

93.1

2019

5.94

93.4

2020

5.89

93.4

2021

5.92

93.7

2022

5.87

93.9

2023

5.83

94.2

2024

5.82

94.3

2025

5.82

94.5

Pitching evolves. It always has and always will. Some pitchers accelerate the evolution because they do something so well and so unique that others want to copy them. In the wild-card era, five pitchers stand out as the biggest influencers. In order of how they changed the game:

Pitcher

Innovation

Greg Maddux

Comeback two-seamer; stretching strike zone horizontally.

Pedro Martínez

Three put-away pitches (fastball, curve, change).

Roy Halladay

Carving an X with movement on both sides of the plate (cutter/sinker combo).

Jacob deGrom

93-mph sliders and 99-mph fastballs.

Paul Skenes

Seven pitches between 83-98 mph that cut, run, sink and ride.

Skenes is the primo influencer now because, layered atop velocity and a low arm slot, he shapes a menu of pitches to exploit hitters’ weaknesses, whether they are right-handed or left-handed. In his most recent start, for example, Skenes threw seven pitches (two fastballs, two off-speed, three breaking) at 15 different mph increments from 80 to 100 mph. He has Martínez’s multi-pitch intellect, Halladay’s command and deGrom’s velocity and arm slot.

It’s too much to ask Chandler to be the next great pitching influencer. But in one, narrow way, he and Burns are signaling what’s next: athletic starting pitchers with high-velocity, high-spin fastballs that once belonged almost exclusively to closers. More will follow.

Graeme Swann on why offspinners aren't succeeding in the IPL: 'People aren't prepared to rip the ball'

The former England bowler talks about what spinners need to do in T20s, the problem with focusing too much on match-ups, and commentating on the league

Matt Roller08-May-2025It is Sunday night in Delhi, and Graeme Swann is about to commentate on his second IPL match in the space of 24 hours. “There are periods where it’s bonkers,” Swann says. “Finish at midnight, pack your bags, leave at 6am, fly to the next city – so long as there’s no delays – and do another game. But as far as commentary gigs go, this is still the one to do.”Swann has been covering the IPL for the best part of a decade. “I still love cricket,” he explains. “A lot of ex-players do it as a grind, but I love it: it’s the best game in the world. I genuinely do get excited when I see people ramping sixes, or Moeen [Ali] bowling someone through the gate. I’m still a fan, so I always try to get that across… I’m not a serious character, for the most part.”Danny Morrison, the ubiquitous voice of T20, has described Swann as the rare co-commentator who can match his energy behind the microphone. “That’s a massive compliment,” Swann says. “Danny makes me smile. He says things that make no sense whatsoever sometimes, but he’s been doing it 30-odd years and the enthusiasm he’s still got for it is infectious.”And yet, as a player, by his own admission, Swann didn’t much care about playing in the IPL: he entered three auctions – 2010, 2011 and 2012 – but never attracted a bid. “I would’ve loved it,” he reflects. “I’d have been bloody good at it as well… But I was a Test cricketer first and foremost, so I was never that bothered. I look back now and think it’s a real shame.Related

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“The ECB didn’t want us to [play in it]. They allowed people to come for half of it, and you gave 30% to your county, 10% to your agent… You ended up taking home about 400 quid from a $250,000 contract. I remember putting my name down in the top bracket possible, knowing that if someone was going to give me that, they’re bonkers, and I’d come blatantly for the money.”There were one or two English players that came over here and did well – people like Kev [Kevin Pietersen], who this was made for – but the rest of us, at the time, were so invested in the Test team. And, to be fair, we were getting good money for that with our central contracts. Back then, it wasn’t really financially worth it to miss the start of your season.”Swann’s T20 career was limited to the early days of the format, but there is enough evidence to suggest he could have been a success in the IPL. He was part of the England side that won the 2010 T20 World Cup in the Caribbean, took 51 wickets in T20 internationals while maintaining an economy rate of 6.36, and even used to open the batting as a pinch-hitter for Nottinghamshire.”You’re right: I was a trailblazer,” Swann says with a grin. “I was ahead of my time. One of my greatest regrets – and I always have a go at Andy Flower for this, because he missed out massively – is that he didn’t let me open the batting at least once in one-day cricket. But when I played, we were still in the dark ages compared to other teams.”Swann with Alex Davies, captain of England Lions, on the team’s tour of Australia earlier this year•Mark Evans/ECB/Getty ImagesBut Swann’s art, right-arm offspin, is struggling in this year’s IPL. R Ashwin was dropped by Chennai Super Kings after an ineffective season, while Sunil Narine and Maheesh Theekshana are bowling mystery spin. Allrounders like Will Jacks, Moeen Ali and Aiden Markram have been used predominantly as match-up options against left-handers.”The reason there’s not that many offspinners playing is that there’s just not that many around at the minute in world cricket,” Swann says. “It’s not because offspinners haven’t got a job to do. Part of the problem for a lot of offspinners is this match-up thing that all teams buy into now – the idea that you can’t turn it into the batsman.”Actually, because people now only face the ball turning away from them, people have got used to it. I swear, if a good offspinner came in now… If they’d played Mo [Moeen Ali] all season at KKR, I reckon he’d kill it, because people have lost the ability to manoeuvre the ball as well. After a few years, it’ll revert, it’ll come back. But everyone is obsessed with wristspin.”Riyan Parag’s five consecutive sixes off Moeen on Sunday did not help, but Swann’s theory does have some credence: left-hand batters are scoring at a slower strike rate (145.89, down from 154.20) against left-arm orthodox spinners in this IPL than the last one, and are getting out to them once every 17.2 balls, down from once every 28.5 balls.Swann (back row, first from left) was part of England’s T20 World Cup-winning side in 2010•Indranil Mukherjee/AFP/Getty ImagesOne franchise’s spin-bowling coach believes that the tide is already turning, and that the best captains are relying less on paint-by-numbers fingerspin match-ups – bowling offspin to left-handers and left-arm orthodox to right-handers – than they used to. Even so, there is a real dearth of frontline right-arm offspinners in the league.Swann believes this is, in part, because the modern offspinner is unwilling to attack. “People aren’t prepared to rip the ball. The way you deceive people is not through darting it in. You have to be brave and be willing to get hit for a six, but you’ve got to dip the ball. And the only way you get dip is by putting a lot of revolutions on the ball.”If you’re spinning it hard and getting it to dip, you’ll get wickets. You might get hit for the odd boundary, but you will get wickets – especially against new batsmen. And let’s face it, everyone gets hit for six now in T20. Expectations have changed. When I played, if you got 2 for 30, it was an abject failure, because you wanted to keep teams down at 140-150. Now, it’s great.”Swann’s influence has extended beyond the commentary box in the last three years. He is now regularly involved with England Lions in a coaching capacity, looking after young spinners and passing on his knowledge. “I’d sit there and see things spinners were doing wrong, or hear people talking about what they were doing, and think, ‘That’s wrong! I don’t agree with that.'”I’d always try to seek out the English spinners, talk to them about it and try to give them some advice. Robert Key and Mo Bobat at the ECB approached me. Keysy said, ‘We think you’re wasted: you’ve been our best spinner for a generation, and you’re up in the commentary box.’ That’s why I got back into it – and I have loved it.”

Francisco Lindor Has High Praise for Mets’ Newly Acquired Bullpen Arm

The deals are flowing as Major League Baseball creeps closer to the trade deadline, with teams angling to put themselves in position to make a run for a title.

Among those teams are the New York Mets, who overhauled their bullpen with two deals on Wednesday night, shipping away prospects to bring in submariner Tyler Rogers and 2024 NL Reliever of the Year Ryan Helsley.

On the field, the Mets were not quite as active, ultimately falling to the Padres 7–1, but the team’s goals are bigger than one Wednesday night game in late July, and the moves they made ahead of the deadline are a good step towards accomplishing them.

While his mood was a bit somber after the loss, Mets star Francisco Lindor still expressed excitement when asked about the team’s acquisition of Rogers.

“He’s a good arm. He’s been in the league for a long time,” Lindor said. “I’ve faced him many times and he’s gotten me out many times. I’ve heard around the league that he’s a really good guy, good person. Somebody that’s probably going to pitch in big situations. It’s going to help us.”

Rogers and Helsley join closer Edwin Diaz in the Mets bullpen, and will be charged with getting important outs for the Mets through the stretch run of the season, and hopefully, the playoffs.

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